A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
